Article

Latest Outlook, Price Projections and Market Developments for Prescription Drugs

September 21, 2022
Various vials and shot

The Market Outlook for 2022 from Vizient, Provista’s contracting partner, offers a line of sight into the prescription drug market, including drug inflation rates and price increases. The Outlook predicts a drug price inflation rate of 3.09%.

The infographic below outlines:

  • Expected prescription drug price inflation rate
  • Shift in Healthcare services
  • Move to Biosimilars
  • 2022 areas of focus
  • Next steps for providers
Various vials and shot, hands drawing liquid from a vial and administering a medical shot

EXPECTED PRESCRIPTION DRUG PRICE INFLATION RATE INCREASES FROM JULY 1, 2022, TO JUNE 30, 2023
  • 3.09% estimated overall drug price inflation rate
  • 3.37% specialty drugs

o  2.43% biologics

o  0.94% non-biologics

  o  4.28% increase in retail

  o  2.68% increase in infusion/clinic

  • 3.51% pediatric drugs
  • 3.14% oncology drugs

o  22.93% of drug spend is for oncology

  • 2.59% infectious disease drugs

o  14.50% of drug spend is for infectious diseases

  • 4.17% biologics

o  16.66% of drug spend is for biologics

  • 4.19% multiple sclerosis (MS) drugs

o  4.41% of drug spend is for MS

  • 3.92% plasma critical care products

o  4.17% of drug spend is for plasma critical care products

A SHIFT IN HEALTHCARE SERVICES
  • 11% reduction in skilled nursing home volumes because patients prefer care provided in their own homes
  • The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for “a welcome move” toward home-based care:

o  Home infusion

o  Hospital-at-home

o  Ambulatory surgery centers

  o  Skilled nursing services at home

  o  Virtual visits/telehealth

 

A SLOW MOVE TO BIOSIMILARS
  • Adalimumab had been the top spend across the U.S. for many years.

o  The launch of biosimilar Humira into the U.S. market will disrupt overall spend in the non-acute market.

o  Adalimumab sales reached about $20 billion globally and $16 billion in the U.S. from October 2020 to September 2021.

  • Remdesivir has taken the top spot in overall spend for Vizient and Provista members, due to the pandemic.
5 AREAS OF FOCUS FOR 2022

Health system executives should focus on these areas when planning pharmacy strategies:

  1. Ending drug shortages and ensuring permanent supply chain resilience
  2. Maximizing the biosimilar opportunity with insulin and adalimumab
  3. Aligning pharmacy with other critical stakeholders, with an emphasis on payers
  4. Understanding that advocacy importance continues to grow
  5. Amplifying the non-acute footprint, including expanding virtual care
3 NEXT STEPS FOR HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS
  1. Manage and maximize health system efficacy and efficiency in non-acute care
  2. Prepare for legislation, regulatory  and judicial action impacting drug expenses
  3. Avert the next immediate and long-term disasters
     
    Source: “Pharmacy Marketing Outlook Winter 2022,” Vizient, January 2022. 
 

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